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EUR/USD finds support near the 1.0780 area and stalls its recent pullback from a multi-month top. The upside potential seems limited amid a turnaround in the sentiment surrounding the greenback. The stellar US NFP report should allow Fed to keep hiking interest rates and favours the USD bulls. The EUR/USD pair witnessed heavy selling for the second straight day on Friday and retreated further from its highest level since April 2022 touched the previous day. The US Dollar rallied across the board in reaction to the stellar US monthly employment details and turned out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the major. The headline NFP print showed that the economy added 517K jobs in January, surpassing even the most optimistic estimates. The previous month's reading was also revised higher to show an addition of 260K vacancies as compared to the 223K reported originally. Furthermore, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped from 3.5% in December to 3.4% – the lowest since May 1969. Average Hourly Earnings, meanwhile, rose 0.3% MoM and 4.4% over the past 12 months, down from 0.4% in December and 4.9%, respectively. Nevertheless, the data was strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to keep hiking… Read More »EUR/USD Forecast: Ascending channel support holds the key for bulls amid post-NFP USD recovery

Introduction VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets. Market summary XAGUSD last price was $ 22.7325. In the short term Silver has been accelerating lower. In the long term Silver has been accelerating lower. Over the past 20 days, the XAGUSD price increased 12 days and decreased 8 days. For every up day, there were 0.67 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.5734% The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.6533% Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -6.33% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.3165% percent. With the short term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with an overnight time horizon. The trade idea Sell $ 165,156 USD of Silver, take profit at $ 22.4972 level with 25.0% odds for a $ 1,709 USD gain, stop out at $ 22.8701 with 49.97% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon. Intraday Predictions XAG/USD trend analysis XAGUSD last price was $ 22.7325. The short term trend accelerating lower is stronger than the long term trend accelerating… Read More »Silver trade idea: How to play the short term trend accelerating lower

US Dollar: Mar ’23 USD is Down at 101.435. Energies: Mar ’23 Crude is Down at 75.84. Financials: The Mar ’23 30 Year T-Bond is Up 3 ticks and trading at 131.28. Indices: The Mar ’23 S&P 500 Emini ES contract is 108 ticks Lower and trading at 4164.25. Gold: The Apr’23 Gold contract is trading Down at 1930.00. Gold is 8 ticks Lower than its close. Initial conclusion This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Down, and Crude is Down which is not normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower, and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that… Read More »Jobs Friday [Video]

In this Trading Opportunities Webinar, Neerav Yadav (Author of “Think with the Markets”) has discussed charts of Forex, Commodities, Indices. All discussions are based on Advanced Elliott Wave, with detailed Wave counts as well standard Supply and Demand analysis. 34 trades discussed during last 33 webinars played out precisely.

It is said that those who do not learn from history are bound to repeat it. Unfortunately, it would seem that this adage is all too applicable to today’s Federal Reserve. Historically, the Federal Reserve has never been right on monetary policy and has a proven track record of getting it ‘wrong’ on inflation, time and time again! Throughout the whole of 2021, the Federal Reserve played down the biggest year-on-year rise in inflation seen in more than four decades – characterizing the record spike as “transitory”. And that wasn’t the first time. Before that, it was the 1970s and early 1980s, when the Fed slowed down the pace of rate hikes too fast – only to see inflation surge once again. Had the Fed learned from the painful inflationary experience of the past, they would know that there are almost always “three waves of Inflation”. We all make mistakes, but the Federal Reserve may be making a bigger one than most by prematurely declaring victory on inflation too soon. This ultimately means that the Fed has removed all obstacles and cleared the path for Commodity prices to take off – presenting traders with “one of the greatest wealth creation opportunities the world has ever seen”. Since… Read More »Fed gives ‘green light’ to the commodities supercycle [Video]

The dollar index jumps to three-week high on Friday, following hot US labor report (Jan 517K vs 185K f/c) and upbeat non-manufacturing PMI (Jan 55.2 vs 50.4 f/c and Dec 49.2) that greatly improved dollar’s sentiment. The greenback extends strong bullish acceleration into second consecutive day, generating bullish signal on break through trendline resistance at 101.98 (bear trendline drawn off 113.02 multi-year high). The action is supported by improving daily studies as 14-d momentum broke into positive territory and 10/20DMA turned to bullish configuration, along with initial signs of formation of reversal pattern on weekly chart, though with more action required for verification. In addition, formation of a bear-trap pattern on monthly chart (below 50% retracement of 89.15/114.72 rally) contributes to positive signals. Bulls eye initial target at 103.04 (daily Kijun-sen), guarding weekly cloud top (103.81) break of which would boost positive signals for stronger recovery. Weekly close above broken trendline is needed to keep fresh bulls in play. Res: 102.73; 103.04; 103.58; 103.81 Sup: 101.98; 101.70; 101.36; 100.95

US non-farm payrolls surprising beat expectations U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) came in significantly better than expected last month, pushing the unemployment rate to a multi-decade low. Payrolls for January came in at 517,000, which was higher than the 185,000 many were anticipating. The figure was also double that of December's number which was revised higher to 260,000 jobs. As a result of today’s figure, unemployment in the United States fell to 3.4%, which is its weakest point since May 1969. The S&P 500 remained close to a 6-month high on the news. Apple report disappointing Q4 earnings Shares in Apple moved higher on Friday, despite the company reporting disappointing quarterly earnings. Following Thursday’s closing bell, Apple reported that revenue for Q4 had come in at $117.15 billion, lower than the expected $121.10 billion. This was down 5.49% from the previous year, and came as earnings also disappointed, coming in at $1.88 versus $1.94 per share. Apple CEO Tim Cook, blamed the current global economic downturn, and rising inflation as some of the reasons for the poor performance. Cook also stated that, “We’re also recognizing the environment that we’re in is tough. And so we’re cutting costs. We’re cutting hiring, we’re being… Read More »Gold lower, as S&P 500 surges following US Non-farm Payrolls [Video]

RBA rate decision – 07/02 – back in November the RBA hiked rates by a less than expected 25bps, amidst concern about the effects recent rate hikes were having on the Australian economy and ergo the housing market. At the time Governor Philip Lowe said that the RBA wanted to slow the pace in order to better judge the lag effects of previous hikes which could take time to trickle down. In December they followed this with another 25bps hike pushing the headline rate to 3.1%, while forward guidance was left unchanged, with the bank warning that rates were likely to increase in the coming months. While the RBA’s caution is understandable given the fragile nature of its housing market there is a risk that they run the risk of allowing inflation to get much more of a toehold in the wider economy. These fears took on a greater life in January when the latest December CPI numbers showed a bigger than expected jump to 8.4%, from 7.3% in November. For Q4 this pushed the average rate to 7.8% from 7.3%, raising concerns that the RBA might have to be more hawkish in terms of what to do later this week,… Read More »The Week Ahead – UK Q4 GDP, RBA rate meeting, BP, Unilever, AstraZeneca and Disney results

AUD/USD rallies on increased risk appetite The Australian dollar rallies as the market remains risk-on. The US dollar’s softness may continue to provide tailwinds despite lacklustre domestic data. Australia’s retail sales saw its biggest drop in over two years in December as the economy is feeling the pinch of the tightening. Extended declines in house prices would further erode consumer sentiment. Still, the full impact of last year’s rate hikes is yet to be seen, signs of a noticeable slowdown may prompt traders to pare back their peak rate expectations. A 25 bp hike has been priced in for the upcoming meeting. The pair is heading towards 0.7280 with 0.6880 as the first support. USD/CAD struggles as Canada’s economy shows resilience The Canadian dollar inches higher as its economy may avoid a mild recession. Cooling inflation has so far given the BoC leeway to pause its monetary tightening. As major central banks are entering the later stage of their hike cycle, market participants would shift their focus to the actual economic impact. Both growth and employment in Canada have proven to be resilient despite a rapid climb in borrowing costs. If the prophesied recession never materialises, the growth-sensitive loonie would… Read More »Turning the corner

After the past week’s central bank bonanza, things will quieten down in the coming days, although not completely, as the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the rate hike theme running. On the data front, the highlights will be Canada’s employment report and the first look at UK GDP in the final quarter of 2022. US indicators will be sparse, giving the dollar little to go on as it bounces back from the knock it took from the not-so-hawkish Fed meeting.